Decline in term premia signals increased market certainty on future interest rates.
The article analyzes Australian interest rates from 1992 to 2007 using a complex model. By breaking down future interest rates into expected short-term rates and term premia, the study shows that term premia have decreased over time, indicating less uncertainty in the market. Towards the end of the period, term premia even turned negative, suggesting investors were willing to pay more for government securities. The model's results provide insights into how interest rates and market expectations have evolved over time.