New method predicts credit losses in economic downturns for Hong Kong mortgages.
Credit losses in economic downturns are linked to default and loss rates in credit portfolios. Financial regulators require institutions to base their capital on the 'Downturn' loss rate given default. A new concept for Downturn LGD is proposed, incorporating credit risk properties and model information. The concept is compared to a proposal by the Department of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve System, and the Federal Insurance Corporation. An empirical analysis is conducted on Hong Kong mortgage loan portfolios.