New model improves food price inflation forecasts in developing countries.
Developing countries like Colombia are using inflation targeting to control prices, especially for food. A new model was created to better predict short-term food price inflation in Colombia by breaking down food items into categories and using Flexible Least Squares. The model outperformed current methods used by the central bank. By separating food items into unprocessed, processed, and food away from home, and combining forecasts from different models, more accurate predictions can be made about food price inflation in developing countries.