New model predicts economic shifts, revolutionizing understanding of GDP growth.
The article introduces a model that looks at how different economic states change over time based on certain factors. These states can shift gradually, not just suddenly. The model uses a method to estimate the strength of these states, which helps predict how long each state will last. By applying this model to GDP growth data, the researchers were able to show how these states relate to economic recessions and how their durations change over time.