Term spreads predict future short-term rates, supporting expectations hypothesis for Euro-rates.
The article examines interest rates in 17 countries over different time periods. The researchers found that the difference between short-term and long-term rates can predict future short-term rates. They also discovered that in many cases, the expectations hypothesis holds true, meaning that future rates are in line with current expectations. Additionally, they estimated the variability of the term premium and its relationship with expected rate changes. Despite some fluctuations, the expectations hypothesis seems to be supported by the data for many countries.