Economics, Econometrics and Finance
4 years ago

High demand uncertainty leads to less productive exporters dominating market share.

HAL (Le Centre pour la Communication Scientifique Directe)
Export Decision under Risk
José de Sousa, Anne‐Célia Disdier, Carl Gaigné

Paper Summary

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The uncertainty in demand conditions affects export sales and probabilities, making exports less sensitive to trade policy. More productive exporters are more impacted by industry-wide expenditure volatility. Managers being risk averse play a role in these effects. Higher volatility leads to a shift of export shares from the most to the least productive exporters. This effect is weakened by greater demand distribution skewness and higher trade costs.