Options market reveals best forecast for market volatility predictions.
The study looked at how implied volatility in the DAX index options market changes based on the option's moneyness and type. They compared implied volatility forecasts with historical volatility to see which was more informative. The results showed that at-the-money put implied volatility was the best forecast, being both unbiased and efficient. Out-of-the-money options were found to be less informative than at-the-money options. Overall, implied volatility had a humped shape, with the most information coming from at-the-money put options.