Fiscal policy drives exchange rates in emerging markets, study finds.
The article explores how government spending impacts the decisions made by central banks in emerging market countries. It found that in some cases, fiscal policy had a dominant influence on monetary policy, especially in Argentina and Brazil in the 1990s and early 2000s. The study also showed that changes in government spending did not directly affect how central banks set interest rates in these countries. Additionally, the research revealed that fiscal policy decisions had a significant impact on exchange rates and country risk premiums, particularly during the 2002 economic crisis in Brazil. Overall, the findings suggest that fiscal policy can play a crucial role in shaping economic conditions in emerging markets.