Credit market arbitrage trades face challenges due to increased idiosyncratic risks.
The article examines reasons for disruptions in credit market trades in 2015-2016. It considers increased idiosyncratic risks, strategic positioning by traders, and regulatory changes. While some idiosyncratic risk rose, there was little evidence of traders changing their positions. The impact of these factors on spreads was small compared to post-crisis cost increases. The study analyzes the CDS-bond arbitrage trade and its effect on dealer balance sheets and returns. It suggests that to achieve the same return-on-equity, the CDS-bond basis would need to be more negative than before the financial crisis.