Commodity price shocks drive economic cycles in emerging economies, study finds.
Emerging economies that rely on selling commodities like oil or minerals go through big ups and downs in their economies. A study looked at how these cycles happen and found that when commodity prices go up, it makes the economy stronger by boosting GDP, consumption, and investment. But it also makes the trade balance worse. The study used a model to show that these price changes affect how much the country can borrow and how competitive it is. By looking at data from Argentina, the study found that almost 40% of the changes in economic growth can be linked to commodity prices. Additionally, these prices also explain around 40-60% of the changes in consumption and investment. Overall, the study shows that these price changes play a big role in how well these economies do.