Terms of trade shocks are believed to be a big factor in economic ups and downs in poor countries, but new research shows this might not be the case. By looking at real-world data from 38 countries, it was found that these shocks only explain less than 10% of changes in overall economic activity. This is quite different from what was predicted by theoretical models. This suggests that the impact of terms of trade shocks on economies might not be as significant as previously thought.