Ignoring Absorption Cycles in Fiscal Policy Leads to Biased Indicators.
Fiscal policies need to consider domestic absorption cycles to avoid biased indicators. A study of 59 countries from 1990-2009 shows that ignoring these cycles can lead to significant errors in fiscal stance indicators. During absorption booms, fiscal policies tend to be pro-cyclical. By adjusting for cyclical components in fiscal data, more accurate estimates can be obtained. Simple filtering methods for computing absorption gaps are as effective as indirect methods for estimating trade balance gaps and output gaps.