Biofuel policies could worsen global greenhouse gas emissions
The article examines how biofuel and climate policies affect land use changes and greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. from 2007 to 2022. They use a model to see how these policies impact which crops are grown, food and fuel prices, and the type of biofuels produced. The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) alone could lead to reducing 6% of cropland for biofuels, increasing corn prices by 16%, and cutting U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by about 2%. But, emissions might rise globally due to indirect land-use changes and increased gasoline consumption. Adding a carbon price or a cellulosic biofuel tax credit helps shift from corn to cellulosic biofuels, meeting biofuel goals with less impact on crop prices. These additional policies improve greenhouse gas savings compared to the RFS alone by promoting more cellulosic biofuels or cutting fossil fuel use, respectively.