Bad news drives market volatility more than good news, study finds.
The article explores how returns and volatilities in financial markets interact. It distinguishes between realized and implied volatilities and examines two theories: the leverage effect and the volatility feedback effect. By analyzing S&P 500 Index futures data, the researchers found that return shocks affect volatility in the short term, while implied volatility plays a key role in predicting future volatility. Bad news has a stronger impact on volatility than good news, and a positive variance risk premium influences returns more than a negative one.