Credit Default Swaps: Volatility and Correlation Impact on Counterparty Risk Adjustment
The article explores how the risk of a party failing to meet its obligations in Credit Default Swaps is affected by the correlation between their default and the default of the reference credit. The researchers also consider the impact of credit spread volatility, which was not previously accounted for. By using stochastic intensity models and a copula function, they found that both default correlation and credit spread volatility significantly influence the counterparty-risk credit valuation adjustment. This adjustment needs to be subtracted from the counterparty-risk free price. The study shows that as correlation and volatility change, the impact on the valuation adjustment can be substantial, especially in cases of wrong-way risk. The researchers also propose a method for valuing contingent CDS on CDS, which is theoretically equivalent to the credit valuation adjustment.