Stable inflation expectations key to economic stability and recovery
The Phillips curve relationship between inflation and the economy changed during and after the U.S. Great Recession. By considering how people interpret inflation shocks, it was found that inflation expectations became more stable over time. A new model that incorporates this anchored inflation expectation shows a consistent relationship between inflation and the economy from 1960 to 2019. This model accurately predicts the inflation trends during the recession and recovery periods. By adjusting certain economic policies, like the Taylor rule coefficient on inflation, we can influence people's expectations and make the Phillips curve flatter.