New study reveals key predictor for U.S. and U.K. stock market returns!
The study shows that a new variable called cday can predict stock market returns better than the traditional variable cay. This is because cday can track changes in asset wealth composition more accurately and its coefficients reach equilibrium faster. Financial wealth shocks are temporary, while housing wealth fluctuations are long-lasting. Expectations about future returns are similar between the U.S. and U.K.