Japanese candlestick trading strategies fail to beat buy-and-hold after costs.
The study tested if Japanese candlestick patterns can predict stock market movements within a day. They found that some candlestick rules beat a simple buy-and-hold strategy, but after accounting for trading costs, only a few remained profitable. Combining the best rules into automated trading systems did not outperform the buy-and-hold strategy. In conclusion, while Japanese candlesticks can somewhat predict short-term stock returns, the predictive power is limited for consistently beating the market when considering luck, risk, and trading costs.