The article explores decision-making when the outcomes of actions are uncertain. It introduces the concept of option value as a measure of net benefits, which considers risk aversion and covariance between preferences and outcomes. The researchers show that when future benefits are uncertain, choosing based on expected value can lead to biased decisions, especially when actions are irreversible. They use a framework that considers convexity assumptions to understand the direction of bias. The findings suggest that in models with just two time periods, considering option value and uncertainty about costs and irreversibility is crucial for making better decisions.