Loan supply shocks drive economic growth in Pacific Alliance countries.
The article examines how changes in loan supply affect the real economic activity in Pacific Alliance countries. The researchers used a statistical model called TVP-VAR-SV to analyze this relationship. They found that loan supply shocks have a significant impact on economic activity in all countries, with around a 1% effect in Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, and a 0.5% effect in Chile. These shocks play a crucial role in driving economic fluctuations, even in stable periods. The impact of loan supply shocks varies between countries, reflecting different financial structures. Overall, loan supply shocks have a greater impact on domestic demand and non-primary activities, contributing significantly to GDP growth. The results are robust to different model specifications and external variables, showing a consistent positive effect on GDP growth.