Sunspot equilibria fragile under learning and evolution, coordination essential for stability.
The article explores how sunspot equilibria can form through agents learning and adapting their beliefs. The researchers analyze different types of sunspots and identify conditions for an equilibrium where only some agents base their predictions on sunspots. They find that evolutionary dynamics in predictor selection suggest these conditions must change as agent populations shift, casting doubt on the emergence of sunspot equilibria through belief adaptation. Ultimately, for a sunspot equilibrium to occur, all agents must agree on using the same sunspot variable simultaneously.