Commercial real estate prices predict economic growth, impacting market stability.
Commercial real estate prices in the Netherlands can predict economic growth. By analyzing rental prices, researchers found that new buildings being rented, price variation, and low-price segment size predict higher growth. Conversely, economic growth decreases when price differences between high-end and low-end segments increase, and when average prices in the low-price segment rise. The mean price itself doesn't provide relevant information, but other aspects of price distributions do.