The article develops models to predict economic recessions in OECD countries and Russia. By combining data from both regions, the researchers created accurate models that can forecast recessions up to four quarters in advance. The best predictions were made with a one-quarter lag, correctly identifying 94% of recessions. Even with a four-quarter lag, over 80% of recessions were accurately predicted. Including credit market variables improved long-term forecasts by reducing errors. Using an optimal threshold for the models further enhanced their accuracy compared to other methods.