Unveiling Euro Area Inflation Trends: Impact on Long-Term Expectations
The article explores how inflation has changed in twelve Euro Area countries from 1984 to 2017. They found that inflation varies between countries in terms of how much it changes, how unpredictable it is, and how long it lasts. The researchers identified a significant role for short-term inflation expectations, economic slack, and openness in explaining inflation trends. However, these factors only have a small impact on inflation overall, except during certain periods. This is important for policymakers to consider when responding to economic shocks to keep long-term inflation expectations stable.