Gravity models reveal hidden trade potentials, reshaping global economic landscape
The research looked at how trade potential between European and OECD countries changes when considering differences between nations and time dynamics. By analyzing trade flows using a gravity model, the study found that using various estimators gave different trade potential results. The average trade potential index doesn't accurately show yearly trade potential distribution, but when factors like country differences and dynamics are included, the index gets closer to predicting actual trade flows. Rather than relying on yearly averages, a dynamic model with fixed-effects offers a better picture of the fluctuating unobservable country-specific elements affecting trade potentials over time.