Favorable shocks lead to deficits in debtor countries, surpluses in creditors.
The current account response to temporary income shocks is determined by the saving generated by the shock multiplied by the country's share of foreign assets in total assets. This means that when countries experience favorable shocks like changes in terms of trade or transfers from abroad, debtor countries tend to have deficits while creditor countries have surpluses. This pattern is supported by evidence from industrial countries and is based on the idea that investment risk is high and diminishing returns are weak.