Commodity price shocks lead to declining savings and expanding investments in Chile
The article explores why some countries with high commodity prices are facing economic challenges. By studying a model with imperfect information, researchers found that when commodity prices rise, people initially think it's temporary but later realize it's lasting. This leads to increased investment in the commodity sector and a decrease in savings, causing the country's current account to worsen over time. The model, tested with Chilean data, explains how the country's economy has evolved since the mid-2000s. The study also looks at how different monetary and fiscal policies can affect the economy during persistent commodity price shocks.