Economics, Econometrics and Finance
4 years ago

Time-varying models boost accuracy in forecasting UK economic growth and inflation.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics
Forecasting UK GDP growth, inflation and interest rates under structural change: a comparison of models with time-varying parameters
Alina Barnett, Haroon Mumtaz, Konstantinos Theodoridis

Paper Summary

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The article compares different models to predict UK economic growth, inflation, and interest rates. By using models that allow for changing parameters over time, researchers found that these models can significantly improve forecast accuracy.