Major Currencies' Exchange Rates Not Reliable Predictors, Study Shows
The forward exchange rate doesn't accurately predict future spot rates, even after considering various factors like nonstationarity and heteroskedasticity. This means that U.S. dollar forward rates for major currencies like the British pound and Japanese yen are not reliable forecasts of future spot rates. This finding challenges the belief that these markets, which have high liquidity and low trading costs, should provide accurate predictions.