Import price shocks drive wage persistence, unemployment impacts price inflation in Portugal.
The study looked at how wages and prices in Portugal change over time. They used a model of a unionized economy with imperfect competition to analyze this. They found that real wages and wage inflation stay high after import price changes, while price inflation stays high after unemployment increases. When looking at the business cycle, changes in wages are mostly due to unemployment, while changes in prices are mostly due to import prices. Productivity changes have a smaller impact on wages and prices.