The article shows that traditional theories about predicting returns on investments using the yield curve are not always accurate. By using more complex models, the researchers were able to match the results of previous studies and explain the discrepancies. They found that adjusting for risk premiums can help predict changes in yields more accurately. The key to this accuracy lies in how risk factors directly influence market prices, rather than just through their volatility. The risk premiums identified in the study align with previous research on forward rates predictability and can also be used to inform monetary policy decisions.