Extreme value theory revolutionizes financial risk management in volatile markets.
The article uses extreme value theory to calculate the risk of a market position. Extreme value theory focuses on the highest and lowest observations in a given time period, which can help predict extreme returns in financial markets. By applying this theory, the researchers found that extreme price movements can indicate market corrections or financial crises. This approach can be used to calculate the Value at Risk (VaR) of different market conditions, from normal to crisis situations. Univariate extreme value theory is used for overall positions, while multivariate extreme value theory is used for positions broken down by risk factors.