Futures prices behaving like a random walk since 2005: implications for traders.
The article examines how the behavior of commodity futures prices has changed due to factors like biofuels demand and inventory levels. By using a term structure model, the researchers found that futures prices have been behaving more like a random walk since 2005. This means that distant futures are expected to be more volatile than usual. As a result, hedgers should use lower hedge ratios, and the Black-Scholes option pricing model may perform better now. The study also found some support for the convenience yield relationship with inventory levels, especially for soybeans and wheat.