Oil price hikes linked to rising unemployment, interest rates impact minimal.
The study looked at how oil prices, oil price uncertainty, and interest rates affect unemployment in the US. They found that when oil prices go up, unemployment also goes up, but when oil prices drop, unemployment doesn't change much. Lower oil price uncertainty leads to less unemployment, while higher uncertainty doesn't have a big impact. Decreasing interest rates can increase unemployment, but increasing rates don't have a significant effect. Overall, the study suggests that option-implied oil price volatility is better at predicting unemployment than actual oil price changes.