Low commodity inventory linked to decreased price volatility, impacting global markets.
The study looked at how the amount of goods in storage affects commodity prices and their volatility. They used data on 21 different commodities from 1993 to 2011. They found that when there is low inventory, prices tend to be higher in the future (backwardation), while high inventory leads to lower future prices (contango). They also discovered that price volatility decreases as inventory levels go up, especially in markets where prices are expected to fall in the future. These findings were consistent across different ways of measuring inventory and during a period of rising commodity prices.