Social Sciences
4 years ago

Estimating Russia's Output Gap Can Predict Inflation, Boosting Economic Stability.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics
Estimating Output Gap and Potential Output for Russia and Its Uselfulness by Forecasting Inflation
Dana Kloudová

Paper Summary

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The article estimates Russia's output gap and potential output using three methods: Hodrick-Prescott filter, production function, and SVAR model. The results from all methods were similar but not identical. The output gap was then used to forecast inflation, showing that it can be a useful indicator for predicting inflation.