Economics, Econometrics and Finance
4 years ago

Monthly Data Beats Quarterly Data for Accurate GDP Growth Forecasts.

1 view
SSRN Electronic Journal
Short-Term Forecasting of GDP Using Large Monthly Datasets: A Pseudo Real-Time Forecast Evaluation Exercise
Karim Barhoumi, Gerhard Rünstler, Riccardo Cristadoro, Ard den Reijer, Audronė Jakaitienė, Piotr Jelonek, António Rua, Karsten Ruth, Szilárd Benk, Christophe Van Nieuwenhuyze

Paper Summary

The article evaluates different models for predicting short-term economic growth in European countries using monthly data. Models that use monthly information perform better than those using only quarterly data. Specifically, factor models that bridge monthly and quarterly data show the best forecasting performance.

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