Oil shocks wreak havoc on US economy, impacting inflation, markets long-term.
The article examines how oil shocks affect the US economy using a large model with common stochastic volatility. It looks at different types of oil shocks from 1986 to 2019 and their impact on various economic and financial variables. The study finds that all oil shocks lead to lasting inflation, global oil demand shocks have negative effects on the economy despite GDP growth, and all oil shocks harm the US stock and currency markets in the long term. The magnitude of these effects varies over time, with the most significant differences seen during the global financial crisis.