New risk measures reveal financial models' hidden dangers before crisis hits.
Model risk is a big deal in finance, and experts are working on ways to measure and manage it better. They looked at different ways to do this, like worst-case scenarios and loss functions. By studying Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall forecasting, they found that model risk tends to go up before a crisis hits. Surprisingly, a model that predicts risk well doesn't always mean it's safe from model risk. The researchers also came up with new ways to measure both the good and bad sides of model risk.