New approach maximizes reservoir storage without increasing flood risk.
Reservoir flood control can be improved by using dynamic pre-storm levels based on flood forecast accuracy. By linking forecast skill with water level control, reservoirs can better manage flood events. This approach considers forecasted flood magnitude and the probability of forecast errors to determine pre-storm storage levels. In a test scenario at the Three Gorges Reservoir in China, the dynamic pre-storm level approach matched the designed flood-limited water levels under low forecast accuracy. As forecast accuracy improved, the new approach maximized floodwater use and reservoir storage without increasing flood risk. This study shows that dynamic water level control during flood season can enhance reservoir operations.