Oil price shocks drive inflation in the Philippines, impacting monetary policy.
The study looked at how global oil prices, exchange rates, interest rates, and economic output affect inflation in the Philippines. They used a special model to analyze data from 1998 to 2019. The results showed that oil price changes have a big impact on inflation, especially in the short term. Exchange rates don't affect inflation much in the short term and have no long-term effect. Interest rates and demand shocks do have a long-term effect on inflation, but it's not the same for positive and negative changes. This means policymakers need to consider these differences when setting monetary policy to control inflation.