The article examines how global economic activity, oil supply, and speculative oil shocks affect the Russian economy. Using a Bayesian model, the researchers found that shocks to global economic activity have the strongest impact on key economic variables in Russia. Increases in oil prices lead to positive effects on household consumption, imports, and the exchange rate. However, stable positive impacts on GDP, investment, and exports are only seen when oil price increases are due to global economic activity shocks. Shocks in global economic activity play a significant role in shaping the dynamics of the Russian economy.