Global Forecasting System Overestimates Precipitation, Impacts Flooding and Droughts
Precipitation forecasts from the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System show biases in predicting rainfall amounts globally. The system tends to overestimate precipitation in areas with low observed rainfall and underestimate it in areas with high observed rainfall. In Southeast Asia during the summer, the system overestimates precipitation by 31% on day 3 of the forecast. These biases could impact river discharge, ocean circulation, and land-atmosphere interactions in the region. The inaccuracies may be linked to issues with snowpack prediction over the Tibetan Plateau, affecting weather patterns like the mei-yu front. Improving these biases could lead to more accurate global water cycle forecasts.