Stock market volatility linked to systemic shocks and forecasting accuracy.
The article reviews over forty studies on stock market volatility, focusing on issues like patterns in volatility, forecasting accuracy, and the impact of market development. The researchers use time-series plots to show how volatility behaves in simple terms. They find that GARCH models are useful for predicting volatility persistence, but may not perform as well as simpler methods in some cases. The relationship between volatility and expected returns is not always clear, and the strength of volatility effects can vary between individual companies and broader market indices. Overall, there is no clear consensus on the properties of stock market volatility, likely due to differences in research methods and data used.