Sudden Stops in Emerging Markets Lead to Devastating Output Losses
Sudden Stops in emerging markets, where currency crises and capital flow reversals happen together, lead to a significant drop in output. These crises cause a sudden and large decrease in economic growth, with a 6-8% output loss in the year of the crisis and a cumulative loss of 13-15% over three years. This pattern, known as the "Mexican wave," has been observed in countries like Mexico and Turkey. Sudden Stops have a more severe impact on output compared to other types of financial crises, explaining why some economies struggle more after international financial crises. This study helps us understand why sudden stops have such a big effect on output in emerging markets.