The article looks at ways to predict UK industrial production, especially during the 1990s recession. Different models were tested, including linear and nonlinear ones using leading indicators like interest rates and stock market data. The nonlinear models didn't do well during the 1990s recession, possibly because it was different from previous recessions. However, a linear model using three indicators - short-term interest rate, stock market dividend yield, and business optimism - performed well in forecasting industrial production.