Improved inflation modeling in South Africa boosts economic stability and growth.
The article discusses how South Africa's monetary policy changed to target inflation in 2000 after becoming more open globally in the 1990s. By including measures of openness, the central bank's inflation forecasting model improved significantly. Factors like the real exchange rate, interest rate differential, and food price inflation were found to play important roles in predicting inflation accurately. Additionally, considering the level of the output gap, rather than just short-term effects, helped address concerns about inflation targeting policies not considering economic activity levels.