Boom today, bust tomorrow: Inventories drive economic cycles, impacting monetary policy.
The article explores how inventories and monetary policy are connected by analyzing data. The researchers found that inventories and production follow predictable cycles, with booms leading to recessions and vice versa. In the U.S., changes in interest rates by the central bank happen before changes in production, indicating forward-thinking policy. Both the U.S. and Japan respond strongly to changes in demand but not supply, as demand-driven booms last longer due to inventory restocking. Supply-driven booms are short-lived because initial inventory accumulation hinders production.