Heterogeneous Expectations Fuel Volatile Markets, Rational Agents Needed for Stability
The article investigates how different types of economic agents with varying expectations affect market dynamics. By analyzing actual data, the researchers found that having a mix of rational and boundedly rational agents influences market fluctuations. They developed a model with two types of agents, one with rational expectations and the other with cobweb expectations. The model suggests that when the fraction of boundedly rational agents increases based on their performance, market dynamics change. Testing the model with U.S. hog data showed that heterogeneous expectations have a significant impact on market behavior compared to assuming all agents have the same rational expectations. Simulation experiments will further explore how these diverse expectations affect market fluctuations.