Iran's Pro-cyclical Policies Amplify Oil Price Shocks, Leading to Economic Downturn.
Oil price fluctuations in Iran drive economic cycles, influenced by government spending. Fiscal policies can either help or hinder monetary policy's ability to stabilize the economy. In Iran, during economic booms, both fiscal and monetary policies tend to be expansionary, leading to high inflation and economic downturns. A balanced fiscal rule combined with managing quasi-fiscal operations can help the central bank conduct more effective countercyclical monetary policies.